8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Jan 2006

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/03/2006

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Main Features
About this Release

JANUARY KEY FIGURES

		Jan 06	Dec 05 to Jan 06
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	17 382.0	0.4
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	17 461.6	0.8

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

JANUARY KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.4% in January 2006. This follows revised increases of 0.3% in both December and November 2005.
In January 2006, all states had an increase in the trend estimate. The states with the largest increase in the trend estimate were the Australian Capital Territory (+0.6%), New South Wales, Tasmania and the Northern Territory (all +0.5%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.8% in January 2006. This follows an increase of 0.5% in December 2005 and no change for November 2005.
All states had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate. The states with the largest increase were South Australia (+1.6%), Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (+1.4%).

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover decreased by 24.3% in January 2006 compared with December 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) decreased by 27.2%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) decreased by 20.0%.
Australian turnover increased by 4.2% in January 2006 compared with January 2005. Chains and other large retailers increased by 4.3%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 4.1%.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
February 2006	31 March 2006
March 2006	8 May 2006
April 2006	30 May 2006
May 2006	3 July 2006
June 2006	2 August 2006
July 2006	30 August 2006

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for January 2006 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	17 016.6	140.3
Change from preceding month ($m)	-5 474.7	108.2
% change from preceding month (%)	-24.3	0.5

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

After five months of weak trend growth there was moderate trend growth in January 2006. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had no change or a decline in the trend estimate for four or more months, while Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had one and four months of strong growth respectively.

FOOD RETAILING

Growth in the trend has been slowing since June 2005 with weak growth for the last four months. Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for January 2006.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been a decline or no change in the trend estimate for 12 months. Victoria, Queensland and South Australia have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least five months. New South Wales had no change in January 2006 following nine months of decline.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for four months. New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been weak trend growth for four months. Victoria and South Australia have had a decline or no change in the trend estimate for at least seven months while all other states, except Western Australia, have had at least two months of moderate or strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

After two months of weak growth in the trend estimate, there was moderate growth in January 2006. Western Australia has had five months of strong growth, while New South Wales and Victoria had moderate growth in January 2006 after weak growth in the previous two months. Queensland, South Australia, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

After two months of moderate growth in the trend estimate, there was strong growth in January 2006. New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia had strong growth in January 2006.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had weak growth for eight months. Over the last ten months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been 12 months of moderate or strong growth. New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory have had strong growth for four, 13 and six months respectively.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been moderate trend growth for three months. Household good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services had moderate or strong growth for at least two months. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had a decline or no change in the trend estimate for at least five months.

VICTORIA

There has been weak trend growth for two months. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Household good retailing have had a decline or no change in the trend estimate for at least five months, while Recreational good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had moderate growth for at least one month.

QUEENSLAND

There has been moderate trend growth for 11 months. Hospitality and services has had 13 months of strong growth in the trend estimate, while after seven months of strong growth, Household good retailing has had two months of moderate growth. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least three months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been weak growth in the trend estimate for two months. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for five, four, 12 and four months respectively. By contrast, Other retailing has had six months of strong growth.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been weak growth in the trend estimate for five months. Food retailing and Hospitality and services have had a decline or no change in the trend estimate for three and six months respectively, while Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had at least three months of strong growth.

TASMANIA

Growth in the trend has been slowing since August 2005 with moderate growth in January 2006. All published industries have had a slowing in trend growth in recent months.